The shift towards clean energy, such as solar power, is accelerating globally. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres declares fossil fuel era is fading; presses nations for new climate plans before COP30 summit. Credit: UNEP/Reza Shahriar Rahman
By Felix Dodds and Chris Spence
SAN FRANCISCO, California / APEX, North Carolina, US, Aug 4 2025 – There is no question that most climate activists and governments were delighted when Brazil offered to host the 2025 UN Climate Conference taking place this November.
Brazil has played such a crucial role in shaping the sustainable development agenda. It hosted the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, which agreed on Agenda 21 and the blueprint for sustainability in the 21st century, the Rio Declaration on Environment and Development, 27 principles intended to guide countries in future sustainable development but also saw signed agreements for the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Convention on Biological Diversity and the Forestry Principles.
Out of the Rio Earth Summit, you saw the creation of a new UN body to monitor the implementation of these agreements. This was the UN Commission on Sustainable Development and a new convention, the Desertification Convention (UNCCD), negotiated within two years, which, along with the UNFCCC and UN CBD, became known as the Rio Conventions.
What is perhaps not appreciated is that it also kicked off what became the Straddling Fish Stocks Agreement (signed 1995, came into force 2001), the Persistent Organic Pollutants (signed in 2001 and came into force in 2004, and the Prior Informed Consent Conventions (signed in 1998 and came into force in 2004).
In 2012, Brazil also hosted Rio+20, which upgraded UNEP’s governing body to a universal body – the United Nations Environment Assembly– and also converted the UN Commission on Sustainable Development to the UN High-Level Political Forum. Rio+20 was also the birthplace of the process that led to the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals.
There are also references to the other SDG areas throughout the text. We mention this to underscore the significant role Brazil has played in shaping the agenda for sustainable development.
Belém’s Time to Shine
Both the 1992 and 2012 UN Conferences were held in Rio de Janeiro, in part because the number of participants could easily be accommodated in the available hotels.
In 1992, an estimated 38,000 people attended, with an additional 16,000 attending the NGO Forum. The Rio+20 conference welcomed over 45,000 attendees.
This time around, the Brazilian Government decided to host the UN Climate Summit, COP 30, in Belém. Arguably, the logic is sound: the city is located in the eastern Amazon, making it the perfect place to talk about climate change and Brazil’s commitment to protecting a rainforest so vast it has been called the “lungs of the Earth”. Symbolically, the decision to hold COP30 in Belém is perfectly sensible.
But the choice of city has also courted controversy.
In fact, there is no question that many delegates and other stakeholders attending the UN’s preparatory meeting in Bonn in June were not happy that Belém is to be the host city.
Why? It all comes down to the limitations facing any small city. Estimates vary, but Belém there are only 7,900 rooms in hotels available, and the Brazilian team is trying their best to deal with the expectation of the numbers coming from adding cruise ships (4,000 rooms), Airbnb or short-term lets (16,500 rooms), and the conversion of schools.
This is nowhere near enough for a UN Climate Summit of this scale and magnitude.
Reuters reported that COP30 President Correla said they had more than 30,000 rooms, compared to an estimate of 20,000 that UN officials had stated Brazil was required to provide. To provide some perspective, here are the last five COP numbers. These exclude those that did not have access to the UN meeting but attended what is called the “Green Zone”. In most countries hosting a COP, the Green Zone is used to promote sustainable development activities to the country’s public and those that do not have access to the main event.
A guide to the number who may want to attend might be obtained by taking an average of the last four COPs. It’s clear that, since Glasgow, numbers have increased considerably. If we take the average of the previous four COPs, we might expect a Brazilian COP to attract around 58,000 people.
These kinds of numbers far outstrip Belém’s ability to cope. What’s more, the limited supply of rooms is reportedly already having a dramatic impact on prices, pushing rates over $ 1,000 a night in many cases. This is especially bad news for small delegations from poorer nations, as well as other essential stakeholders, including Indigenous peoples’ groups and nonprofits, which may not have the deep pockets of some wealthier nations.
Belém and the Brazilian hosts are pulling out all the stops to meet demand. They have brought in two cruise ships with 6,000 additional beds, which they have promised to make available to delegates from developing countries at lower prices. They are actively working on adding capacity through Airbnb and converting schools and other venues into temporary accommodation.
And according to a recent New York Times report, they are even converting “love hotels”—no-frills rooms serve as “a backdrop for lunch-hour trysts, clandestine affairs and passion struck lovers seeking some privacy”—into regular hotels by removing “erotic” apparatus such as (believe it or not!) stripper poles.
Even with such creative solutions in play, however, many worry there will still be a shortage of accommodation.
A Big Tent
Why does this matter? After all, some believe the COPs are getting too big. Critics of mega-Summits point out, quite rightly, that these enormous meetings create logistical nightmares. Not only that, but they note, again correctly, that only a few thousand people out of the tens of thousands who attend are involved in the UN negotiations. Why do we need all the others there?
Furthermore, with climate change under attack from fossil fuel lobbyists and a small but growing number of sympathetic politicians worldwide, some governments are reducing their climate commitments rather than increasing them. Won’t delegations be smaller if governments are less committed?
There is, however, a counterargument to this. In our view, the vast majority of the public—and most governments—remain firmly committed to addressing the existential threat climate change poses. Because of this, we believe the world needs opportunities for people to come together in large numbers and demonstrate their commitment and resolve.
The COP30 in Brazil could have provided that. Arguably, it ought to have been a record-breaking event with massive engagement from Indigenous peoples’ organizations, community-based groups, and more traditional stakeholders.
It might have energized concerned citizens and climate activists to create a shared narrative to take back and challenge the growing opposition to action. Of course, some of that will still happen in Belém, whether it attracts (and can accommodate) 20,000 or 30,000 or even more. However, given the small city’s accommodation limitations, it will not reach the level it might have done.
A Better Way?
While it’s too late to change the venue for COP30, perhaps a new system needs to be considered? We would welcome a process where the UN assesses possible options the host country is considering. Such an assessment could then go to the COP Bureau and a decision be taken in coordination with the host country.
This might help avoid any disconnect between the numbers wishing to attend and those who can realistically be accommodated, doesn’t happen again.
A good example of this type of process was the transparent approach by South Africa for the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development. In this case, the South African government allowed cities to bid. Cape Town, Durban, and Johannesburg duly applied.
The government then published the relevant information, and the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs conducted a review of the cities through a fact-finding visit. Ultimately, it was determined that only Johannesburg could accommodate the 37,000 people who officially attended. Again, there were even more people involved in related events that also took place in the city at the same time.
Türkiye and Australia: Planning for COP31
Looking to the future, let’s consider COP31: the two countries that are hoping to host COP31 are Australia and Türkiye.
For Australia, Melbourne has an estimated 26,500 hotel rooms, while Sydney has 43,000 rooms and Brisbane has around 21,000, and is reportedly building another 3,000. Meanwhile, Perth has 16,000, Adelaide 10,000, and Canberra around 7500. Realistically, this likely means Sydney or (possibly) Melbourne or Brisbane might have the capacity to host an event of this size.
For Türkiye, the mega-city of Istanbul boasts the most capacity, with estimates ranging from 75,000 to over 200,000 rooms; easily enough for a COP. Accurate figures for other Turkish cities, such as Ankara and İzmir, are difficult to obtain. However, these types of data should guide the COP31 Bureau and the host country.
There are, of course, additional issues for a host country and city that need to be addressed, such as transport, the size of the conference centre, and access to enough cafes and other foot outlets at the venue, , including vegetarian and vegan options.
Implementation Time
Another change we would like to see happen in the climate process is both logistical and substantive. As COP30 President, Brazil is developing a much-needed process within the delegates’ “Blue Zone” to focus on implementation of the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement. With Brazil’s strong reputation for diplomatic creativity, perhaps this innovation should not come as a surprise. However, it should certainly be welcomed.
Future Presidencies should build on this. We need COPs to rapidly ramp up the focus on implementation if we are to keep well under within two degrees, and preferably under 1.5, by the end of the century. An enhanced Blue Zone should also be the home for inspiring projects and coalitions focused not on policy but on implementing what we already have. As former US President Barack Obama once said:
“We are the first generation to feel the effect of climate change and the last generation who can do something about it.”
Prof. Felix Dodds and Chris Spence have participated in UN environmental negotiations since the 1990s. Their latest book, Environmental Lobbying at the United Nations: A Guide to Protecting Our Planet, was published in June 2025.
IPS UN Bureau
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