Mountain range in Mt. Everest region in Nepal; loss of snow and glacier melting in the region impacting people living in the region and downstream communities. Photo: Tanka Dhakal/IPS
By Tanka Dhakal
BAKU, Nov 12 2024 – Scientists warn of vastly higher impacts on billions of people’s livelihood and cost to the global economy by the accelerating losses in the world’s snow and ice regions, aka the cryosphere.
Over 50 leading cryosphere scientists released an annual report on the status of the world’s ice stores on Tuesday (November 12) at the UN Climate Conference (COP29) in Baku. An updated report on the world’s ice warns of “drastically higher costs without immediate emissions reductions.”
The State of the Cryosphere Report 2024 titled Lost Ice, Global Damage, coordinated by the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative (ICCI), says that current climate commitments are nowhere near to avoid irreversible consequences for billions of people from global ice loss.
After analyzing most recent cryosphere science, scientists underscore that the costs of loss and damage if our current level of emissions continues—leading towards a rise of 3°C or more—will be even more extreme, with many regions experiencing sea-level rise or water resource loss well beyond adaptation limits in this century. Reports say mitigation also becomes more costly due to feedback from thawing permafrost emissions and loss of sea ice.
For the first time, the report notes a growing scientific consensus that melting Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets may be slowing important ocean currents at both poles, with potentially dire consequences for a much colder northern Europe and greater sea-level rise along the U.S. East Coast.
Cryosphere scientists (ICCI) stress that only definitive and rapid measures to reduce emissions can avert the worst loss and damage impacts of ice and snow loss and cut the ultimate costs to vulnerable nations and high emitters alike.
“The drastic changes we are seeing in the cryosphere while mountain and downstream regions all over the planet are suffering floods, droughts, and landslides provide the most compelling arguments we could have for immediate climate action,” said Regine Hock, an IPCC author and glaciologist. “The cryosphere can’t wait. It must be put at the top of the global climate agenda.”
To underscore the situation, scientists gave an example of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which is currently losing 30 million tons of ice per hour, “something I never thought I would see in my lifetime,” said IPCC scientist Dr. Rob DeConto. “If climate pledges are not taken seriously, global temperature rise may exceed 3°C, with Antarctic ice loss potentially causing sea levels to rise much faster than we think.”
Cryosphere scientists are pleading for urgent climate action to avoid catastrophe for coastal cities and downstream communities in the mountain regions.
Dr. James Kirkham, an author on the report, said, “We are not talking about the distant future; the impacts of cryosphere loss are already felt by millions. But the speed of action we take today decides the size and speed of the challenge to which future generations will need to adapt. The impacts of cryosphere loss will only become greater with every hour that leaders delay action now.”
Impact is not only limited to coastal or ice sheet regions but also impacts the day-to-day livelihood of Himalayan regions too.
“There is a very clear connection between changes in the cryosphere in high mountain regions and downstream impacts,” climate scientist Dr. Miriam Jackson said. “Some of these are related to hazards, including thawing of permafrost (frozen ground) and floods that originate in glacial lakes, commonly called GLOFs—glacier lake outburst floods.”
In Asia, the frequency of GLOFs is expected to triple by century’s end without substantial emission reductions. Jackson added, “Glaciers are continuing to shrink, affecting and changing water runoff. Snow cover and number of snow-covered days are also showing decreasing trends, affecting people who depend on meltwater runoff for irrigation.”
A change in water resources will affect agriculture and probably lead to higher food prices.
To avoid multilayered impacts, urgent climate responses and emissions cuts are necessary.
“Whilst some devastating losses and impacts are now locked in,” Kirkham said, “how bad the intensity and severity of cryosphere impacts will continue to grow in the future is still very much to be decided based on the policy decisions we will make in the coming five or so years.”
IPS UN Bureau Report
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